ABOUT ME

 

Nick Ragone is an author, attorney and public relations executive in New York City. He earned a bachelor’s degree in history and political science from Rutgers University, and is a graduate of the Eagleton Institute of Political Science at Rutgers University (undergraduate) and the Georgetown University Law Center.

He is the author of three books: Essential American Government, Everything American Government, and President's Most Wanted. Nick is a regular contributor to the Fox News Channel and Fox Business, the PIX11 Morning Show, and has a weekly appearance on the popular Raph Bailey Radio Show.  He co-anchored PIX11's five-hour live inauguration coverage with Jim Watkins and Kaity Tong.

Nick is a contributor to Donklephant.com, one of the most influential political blogs on the web, and  has written for US News & World Report, The Star-Ledger, Real Simple Magazine and RealSimple.com.  Nick has been quoted in over two dozen stories on politics, the presidency, and public relations.  In December of 2007, Nick was named one of PR Week's 40 under 40 to watch, and in May of 2008 was featured in "Profiles of Success", a book about public relations. Nick lives in Jersey City, NJ, with his wife and two children, and spends what little free time he has obsessing on the Mets.

Nick can also be found on Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=740817853


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« Let 2010 begin! | Main | Comms is now a part of CEO's job description »
Wednesday
Nov042009

I'm not Nostradamus (though I did predict the war of 1812)*

Yesterday I went on PIX11 and made two predictions (if they had posted the clip you'd be watching it instead of reading about it).  First, Mayor Bloomberg would win, but it would be a much smaller margin than the polls were showing, and it would not be a mandate.  Second, if Chris Daggett, the third party candidate in NJ, polled less then 10% on election day, Chris Christie would win.

Daggett polled about 5%, and Christie won by 4 points.  Bloomberg won by 3%, and clearly he has no mandate.  At one point in the evening, all the networks called Mayor Bloomberg the winner with only 10% of precincts reporting, and reminiscent of 2000 they had to retract those calls a half hour later when it was tied with 40 percent reporting.  Nice.

What's the big takeaway from yesterday's elections?  It's no surprise that the Republican won in Virginia -- that was fairly expected even though Obama had won their last last year.   The margin, however -- nearly 20 percent -- is a bit of surprise, and shows the depth of unease out there.  Moreover, the Republicans swept all the statewide offices in VA -- Attorney General, Lt Governor, etc -- and exit polls showed that the president's unpopularity was a big issue.  Bad sign for the prez.

On the other hand, Christie's win in NJ is a big surprise.  Joisy is a solidly blue state, and while Corzine was a dreadful candidate, he still outspent Christie by 3 to 1 and had seemingly pulled even in the polls.  Christie's four point victory is considered a blowout by NJ standards, and exit polls showed that the moderate swing voters -- the ones that flocked to Obama last year -- went overwhelming to Christie.  Same thing as Virginia. 

This doesn't portend well for the Democrats in 2010.   While those elections are eons away, the underlying sentiment -- frustration with the stagnant economy, runaway deficit, overall growth in government -- doesn't seem to be dissipating.   It'll be interesting to see if these results impact the congressional Democrats approach to healthcare reform over the next two months.  Will they still insist on a highly unpopular public option?  Will the president reach out to Republicans and solicit their ideas for the bill? Will the Mets ever win another game? Important questions ...

*While I technically did write about the War of 1812 in one of my quatrains, I predicted that the Axis Powers would blietzkrieg through Canada and then threaten the south with nukes.  So I guess I was a little off. 

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Reader Comments (3)

3 visits from Obama.
2 visits from Bill Clinton.
1 visit from Biden.
Christie wins.

Priceless

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