ABOUT ME

 

Nick Ragone is an author, attorney and public relations executive in New York City. He earned a bachelor’s degree in history and political science from Rutgers University, and is a graduate of the Eagleton Institute of Political Science at Rutgers University (undergraduate) and the Georgetown University Law Center.

He is the author of three books: Essential American Government, Everything American Government, and President's Most Wanted. Nick is a regular contributor to the Fox News Channel and Fox Business, the PIX11 Morning Show, and has a weekly appearance on the popular Raph Bailey Radio Show.  He co-anchored PIX11's five-hour live inauguration coverage with Jim Watkins and Kaity Tong.

Nick is a contributor to Donklephant.com, one of the most influential political blogs on the web, and  has written for US News & World Report, The Star-Ledger, Real Simple Magazine and RealSimple.com.  Nick has been quoted in over two dozen stories on politics, the presidency, and public relations.  In December of 2007, Nick was named one of PR Week's 40 under 40 to watch, and in May of 2008 was featured in "Profiles of Success", a book about public relations. Nick lives in Jersey City, NJ, with his wife and two children, and spends what little free time he has obsessing on the Mets.

Nick can also be found on Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=740817853


Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket

Search
Subscribe
Powered by Squarespace

We are a member of...
Add to Technorati Favorites
BlogToplist.com  Politics Top Blogs

Blogcatalog.com Political Blogs - BlogCatalog Blog Directory

Login
« Van Doren speaks (ok so I'm six months late, but whatever) | Main | Nick on Fox and Friends »
Tuesday
Dec022008

The dreaded "R" word

The news from the National Bureau of Economic Research that we've been in a recession since December of 2007 was met with a 680 point sell-off on Wall Street on Monday.

I suppose the markets got spooked by the "R" word, but in reality most Americans not living under a rock the past year have realized that we're in an extremely soft economy. Whether it was technically deemed a recession was sort of meaningless, but I guess not so for the bears on Wall Street.

But I think there is a silver lining to all this:  If we've been in a recession for 12 months, that means we've probably bottomed out already and we'll likely come out of it in early summer.  The reason for my optimism: Since the Great Depression, the two longest recessions have lasted 16 months -- 1974-75 and 1980-81. 

Even if this recession exceeds those, it likely won't be much longer, so perhaps we're looking at spring or early summer.  Factor in the unprecedented level of government stimulus that is going to flood the economy in the new year, and it could end faster.  

I'm not buying the doomsday scenario that says we'll be in recession until 2010.  After all, the business cycles are much more compressed than years past; the government is able to allocate resources much more quickly; and we're an infinitely more productive workforce.   Our economy bares zero resemblance to 1974 or 1981, and we shouldn't use those recessions as a gauge.

I think the fourth quarter will be the low point, and by the second quarter we'll be back to growth.

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend

References (23)

References allow you to track sources for this article, as well as articles that were written in response to this article.
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Madonna はモンクレール ダウン2014ガムルージュかな。モンクレール 2014 秋冬メンズ RihannaはファーストシーズンのMONCLER S。難しい白を…髪とアクセサリーのゴールドをアクセントに着こなしていますね?どのラインも素敵なのですが,Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word…
  • Response
    Response: el mejor tablet
    I found a great...
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: dumpsters
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: Ebon Talifarro
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: Ebon Talifarro
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: groupwise inc
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: p/u/2/hcK71S2Jqcg
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: Ebon Talifarro
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: amazon.com
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: his explanation
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Response: www.facebook.com
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word
  • Response
    Nick Ragone.com - Home - The dreaded "R" word

Reader Comments (63)

I would agree with this. Anyone who's watched their 401K for more than, oh say, 10 months KNEW that we were already in a recession. I don't know that we will see relief by summer . . .Nick you are an optimist.. but I DO thing that by the end of 09 we'll see an evening out of the real estate fiasco and the job market which, along with an enthusiasm for the new adminstration will hopefully help boost the economy.

December 3, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterSL

I think this one is going to last a little bit longer because the world economy is just catching the cold from our sneeze. Sign posts in Russia, Hungary, Ireland, India, Singapore, China, and even in Dubai point to a lower 2009 and not coming out till 2010. Couple this with the whole bs decoupling theory and how analysts were sold on how companies could get through the slow down without the US and we start to see companies get harder hit in 09. Those economies are like government receipts... a year behind reality.

Then again, I hope you are right and i'm wrong :-D

December 3, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterTim

With you, Tim - Nick, hope you're right on emerging from recession. On a micro level, also believe certain regions of U.S. will recover faster than others - based on industries, regional economies, company executives not ridiculously chartering private jets, blah, blah, blah. Have you been to Michigan lately? On about year 4 of their recession.

December 4, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterJen

I think the first half of 2009 will be more pain, but the second half will see substantial pickup.

December 4, 2008 | Registered CommenterNick Ragone

The whirlwinds Mens Abercrombie Short of revolt will continue Mens Abercrombie Sweaters to shake the foundations of Mens Abercrombie Outerwears our nation until Mens Abercrombie Hoodies the bright day of justice emerges. But there is something that I must say Mens Abercrombie Polos to my people who stand on the warm threshold which leads into the Men Abercrombie Henleys Crews palace of justice. In Womens Abercrombie Classic Shirts the process Womens Abercrombie Jean of gaining our Womens Abercrombie Tanks rightful place we must not be guilty Womens Abercrombie Tees of wrongful deeds. Let us not seek to satisfy our Womens Abercrombie Short thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of Womens Abercrombie Sweaters bitterness and hatred.

We must forever Womens Abercrombie Outwearsconduct our struggle on the high plane of dignity and discipline. we must not allow our creative protest to degenerate into physical violence. Again Womens Abercrombie Hoodiesand again we must rise to the majestic heights of Womens Abercrombie Polo meeting physical force with soul force.

The marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Negro community must not lead us to distrust of all white people, for many of our white brothers, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny and their freedom is inextricably bound to our freedom.

October 26, 2010 | Unregistered Commenteraaa

Jay Chou was born in Taipei a common family. Recalled his childhood, mother with canada goose jackets on sale a simple thank god he gave me, which fully reflects her son is love for the baby. Chubby laughed with a small dimple, lovely very cute. From the music will hear jay excitedly as the tempo, not just watching the sun shaking, TaoDaWei performance, also often wore dark glasses imitate canada goose expedition parka for sale high glide singing, sit in front of the TV will follow advertisement sing and jump. Three years old to record the have interest, they often take recorder record your own voice, or singing, or make up the story, he wrote, directed, outlet canada goose parka from the perspectives again from sing some.While his father to son childhood of evaluation is, he was love play handsome. Dad memories said: jay was small, and we all often go to the beach on waves, the other kids darling stood photographed, he will run to the front of the lens to rob a lens. Love canada goose, family gatherings of his performance of performance, often made us surprises. Jay was love play handsome, not just wide trousers to wear pants, hair to be kept version in separate, even the car all must ride heavy motorcycle. High school, high school music class every day approaches from Taipei to Penn, light drive will cost more than two hours, so we would like to buy a motorcycle little sheep let him instead of walking. As a result, canada goose down jackets discount jay one openings will heavy FZR, only because ride heavy it look handsome.

December 20, 2010 | Unregistered Commentercanada goose jackets on sale

An electric radiator can offer an energy efficient heating solution to your home.Make your home become warm in a short time with the high efficiency.T
he electric towel rail made the towels warm and softy during your bath time.You can have a comfortable touch of luxury to have a warm towels and
wouldn`t worried about is.We supply all types of radiators includingelectric radiators and electric towel rail.The electric towel rails give you
the most luxury life in the bath room.The electric towel rails keep the towels dry all the time.

January 6, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterelectric radiators

You can search the SEO Agency on the Internet.You can understand our high quality of the SEO Services from the SEO UK.You can feel the best SEO
service if you choose the service from SEO agency.We provide the best SEO Consultant for every customer to choose.All of them are guaranteed.
Welcome to the SEO UK.

January 6, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterSEO Agency

At Simply Finance we have a team of Debt Consultants who know how easy it is for anyone to slide into debt, but more importantly have all
the knowledge and contacts to get you out of debt for good - whether it be through an IVA,
Debt Management, Debt Settlement or Debt Consolidation,
we will find the easiest way for you to eliminate or Consolidate Debt.

January 6, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterDebt Management

Guaranteed SEO runs a good Guaranteed google rank in the
google.It is made of Guaranteed SEO company.Use the guaranteed SEO
give the customers the guaranteed results whatever you want to search.Customers can put different sort of products in the guaranteed SEO.
Customers can find their products in the Guaranteed google results.Guaranteed SEO has a eximious service
team for every customer to the Guaranteed google position to show their products.

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterGuaranteed SEO

We give you the best and useful free debt advice to burn your debt.Before it,you can read our privacy policy and general rules for the free debt.
First,fill in the form.Second, get free debt advise from our awardwinning partner.Third, start burning debt with a tailored solution..
You would know how the free debt advise we give you.

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterfree debt advice

We have different sort of display cabinet.For example,the 1/3 glass with lighting and 2/3
glass counter with lighting.The rectangle shape,the square shape give you the different view of the display.
Some put on the ground and some can adhere to the wall which can save the space of the ground.

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterdisplay cabinet

Power-Rite (UK) Ltd is one of Britain's leading diesel generator hire, generator rental, repair and maintenance specialists. We are forward thinking company that is able to respond to ever changing needs to generator sales and load bank hire

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commentergenerator hire

Specialists in bespoke made to order Marble Fireplace Surrounds, Granite fireplace surrounds, Electric fireplaces and Gas fireplaces

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterfireplaces

We provide quality electric underfloor heating systems and associated products, whilst maintaining the highest standards of customer service. Our underfloor heating systems come under one of the UK's premier brands of
underfloor heating solutions

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterunderfloor heating

Datel is Sage's largest UK partner, providing implementation, consultancy and support. ROI-focussed suppliers of sage 200,
sage line 200, Sage 1000 and Sage ERP X3

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commentersage 200

Lakeland Laser is steel fabricators specialized in
stainless steel fabrication
and sheet metal fabrication, which is leading in UK steel fabrication.

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commentersteel fabrication

Timberzone are importers, distributors and installers of a quality range of Wood Flooring, including Solid wood flooring and Engineered Flooring

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterwood flooring

Revolutionary wood burning stoves from Future Fires. Our Wood Burning Stove range stuns from all angles and gives the appearance of a large open fire

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterwood burning stoves

Caswell Group is an award-winning asbestos removal company. Our Asbestos Removal Contractors deliver fast, efficient projects across the UK

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterasbestos removal

TateOil is a family-run company working across the UK to reliably deliver you heating oil at the lowest heating oil prices

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterheating oil prices

The Yamato`s national culture give you the best Japan tours in Japan.Japan tour become one of the hottest international travel line in recent years.
During the holiday,many people choose the Japan holiday to enjoy.The Japan tours give you the best sight and enjoy for you.Beautiful scenery and ancient
architecture can let you have a beautiful Japan holiday.

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterJapan holiday

Christiara sex toys is the No. 1 online store for high quality toys including
vibrators and toys for him such as the fleshlight

January 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commentersex toys

This is my great pleasure to visit your website and to enjoy your excellent post. I found many valuable things to learn in this article. Please keep on posting such quality articles. Thank you for sharing this article to all of us.
Loan Information

February 18, 2011 | Unregistered Commentervivyan

Liked the way the author has not thrown a little light on facts concealed. I like it. I have really good points on this discussion. Thank you for your work and the exchange of the information.
Gadgets Information
Gadgets Info

February 25, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterdyanna

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>